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From the paper “Drivers to heat pump adoption by European Households”. 

European governments are on a journey towards their net-zero ambitions. More countries pledge to achieve net zero emissions over the coming decades. These long-term targets can only be achieved by setting measurable near-term milestones.

One of those milestones is to have more zero-carbon-ready buildings. This means having more buildings that:

  • Use renewable energy technologies such as heat pumps or solar panels directly;

  • Or rely on an energy source that can be fully decarbonised, such as electricity.

The European Commission's ambition is the complete ban of stand-alone fossil boilers on the market in 2029. This is part of the REPowerEU plan to improve energy efficiency and to accelerate the green transition.

The UK government plans to implement a new initiative known as the Future Homes and Building Standard (FHS), which aims to guarantee that newly constructed residences have energy-efficient heating systems and are prepared for future sustainability. As part of a roadmap leading to the FHS, various measures will be implemented to minimise energy consumption and decrease greenhouse gas emissions in new buildings.

In September 2023, the Government pushed back the end date for new and replacement fossil fuel heating installations in existing properties in England to 2035 including an exemption for off-gas grid properties where there is no suitable low-carbon heating solution.

Despite this setback, however, the new legislation maintains that new homes will not be built with fossil fuel heating, such as a natural gas boiler. It is expected that heat pumps will become the primary heating technology for new homes under the FHS. Considering the low penetration of district heating (heat networks currently meet approximately 2% of heat demand in the UK1), it is expected that heat pumps’ uptake will increase in new homes under the FHS.

In Scotland, the government has proposed a ban on gas boilers in all new buildings from April 2024. If passed, this will apply to residential and business properties.

For more details, please see the full paper here: